Efforts to scrap a long-standing environmental safeguard have raised fears of a fresh surge in deforestation across the Amazon rainforest.

At the centre of the dispute is the Amazon Soy Moratorium — a ban preventing the sale of soy grown on land cleared after 2008. The agreement has long been credited with sharply reducing forest loss and is often cited as a global model for protecting vulnerable ecosystems.

Now, as the COP30 climate summit enters its second week, powerful agribusiness groups in Brazil — supported by a bloc of politicians — are attempting to dismantle the restriction. Opponents of the moratorium claim it operates like an unfair “cartel”, giving major companies excessive control over the Amazon’s soy market.

Environmental organisations warn that ending the ban would trigger “disaster”, opening the door to renewed land-grabbing and large-scale forest clearance to expand soy production. Scientists say the Amazon is already moving toward a dangerous tipping point, where ongoing deforestation and climate change may push the ecosystem beyond the threshold needed to sustain itself.

Brazil is the world’s top soy producer, and the crop is a crucial source of protein used in animal feed. Around 10% of the soy imported into the UK comes from the Brazilian Amazon, feeding livestock for products such as chicken, pork, beef, and farmed fish.

Major UK food retailers — including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Aldi, Lidl, M&S, McDonald’s, Greggs and KFC — back the moratorium through the UK Soy Manifesto, a coalition representing about 60% of the UK’s soy imports. The group argues the ban is essential to keeping UK supply chains free from deforestation. Public sentiment also strongly favours Amazon protection: a WWF poll this year found 70% of respondents support government action against illegal deforestation.

In Brazil, however, pressure to overturn the moratorium is growing. Last week, farming representatives asked the Supreme Court to reopen an investigation into whether the agreement violates competition laws. Vanderlei Ataídes, head of the Soy Farmers Association in Pará state, told the BBC the ban restricts agricultural expansion unfairly. He questioned why soy is prohibited while other crops — such as rice, corn, and cotton — can be planted on the same land.

The challenge has divided Brazil’s government. While the Justice Ministry suggests there may be evidence of anti-competitive behaviour, the Environment Ministry and the Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office have publicly supported the moratorium.

First introduced almost twenty years ago, the voluntary pact emerged after a Greenpeace investigation revealed Amazon-grown soy was entering global animal-feed supply chains, including McDonald’s chicken products. Major traders such as Cargill and Bunge joined the agreement, pledging not to purchase soy grown on land deforested after 2008.

Before the ban, soy expansion and cattle ranching were among the leading drivers of Amazon deforestation. Following its introduction, forest loss dropped dramatically, reaching record lows in 2012 under President Lula’s previous term. Deforestation later rose under Jair Bolsonaro’s administration, but has since declined again under Lula’s current presidency.

Environmental experts warn dismantling the moratorium could expose an area the size of Portugal to renewed forest clearing. Small-scale farmers living near soy plantations say expanding industrial agriculture is already altering local climates, reducing rainfall and affecting their ability to grow traditional crops.

The push to lift the ban comes as Brazil prepares to launch a major railway linking its agricultural south to the Amazon region — a development expected to lower transport costs and further incentivise land clearing.

Scientists monitoring the rainforest through long-running research networks, such as the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment (LBA), say the forest is undergoing profound changes. Reduced moisture production from declining tree cover is weakening rainfall patterns and intensifying droughts, creating a feedback loop that kills more vegetation. Experts warn that vast areas could eventually transition into dry savannah, releasing enormous quantities of carbon and disrupting weather systems globally.

Such a collapse would endanger millions of people and countless species that depend on the Amazon, with consequences far beyond South America.